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Gartner: Open source will quietly take over

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/0,1000000121,39379900,00.htm

"By 2012, more than 90 percent of enterprises will use open source in
direct or embedded forms," predicts a Gartner report, /The State of Open
Source 2008/, which sees a "stealth" impact for the technology in
embedded form: "Users who reject open source for technical, legal or
business reasons might find themselves unintentionally using open source
despite their opposition."

However, Gartner argues that at the operating-system level, Linux
deployments are showing smaller benefits in total cost of ownership
(TCO) as it is applied to more demanding projects, because of the
technical skills required to use it: "Much of the availability,
management and DBMS licensing costs will remain proprietary," says the
report, and "version control and incompatibilities will continue to
plague open-source OSs and associated middleware".

"Gartner has woefully underestimated the penetration of open source,"
said Mark Taylor, president of promotion group the Open Source
Consortium. "Everyone uses [open source] on a daily basis in services
like Google."

[...]

IT managers who simply want to cut costs will look to software as a
service (SaaS) rather than open source, says the Gartner report. "More
technically adventurous IT projects will often prefer the direct use of
open source and on-premises software development, but the mainstream IT
organisation looking to reduce the IT cost burden will tend to choose
SaaS where it is available."

This is nothing more than marketing-speak, said Taylor: "It's a very
superficial analysis," he said. "The two will become almost
indistinguishable as 98 to 99 percent of SaaS will be open source." And
Gartner agrees that, by 2011, open source will dominate software
infrastructure for cloud-based providers.

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